Galvin, Gaustad & Stein, LLC



7377 East Doubletree Ranch Road
Suite 250
Scottsdale, AZ 85258


480.776.1445,Toll-Free: 800.554.1154




GGS Thoughts on the Market - December 20, 2018

It has been exactly one month since our last market commentary, and the market selloff has continued. In November, we described three overhangs that weighed on the market: global trade, Italian debt, and interest rates. Since that time, Italian debt has become less of a concern as the Italian government struck a budget deal with the EU. On the other hand, the remaining concerns over global trade and interest rates have intensified.
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GGS Thoughts on the Market - November 20, 2018

Since our last commentary on October 11, 2018, the S&P 500 has both held a minor rally from $2728 to $2814 and subsequently fallen even further to today's close of $2642. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the three primary overhangs - global trade concerns, Italian debt issues and rising interest rates - remain roughly the same as they were on October 11. Fundamentally, the main incremental negative has been weaker than expected corporate earnings.
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GGS Thoughts on the Market - October 11, 2018

Since the S&P 500 Index peaked on September 21 at $2940, it has fallen 7.2% to today’s closing price of $2728. The first few days of this decline were very gradual, followed by sharp moves lower both yesterday (-3.3%) and today (-2.1%). Yesterday’s move was the biggest one-day drop since February, when the market actually had two days in the same week that were worse at 3.8% and 4.1%.
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GGS Thoughts on EU Political Turmoil - 5/29/2018

Global markets have recently come under pressure over the reemergence of political and debt concerns in both Italy and Spain. The chief concern for both is the fiscal budget pressure the countries have been under while other EU members assist in providing liquidity. These budget pressures have been viewed as overly burdensome by the voting public, and some anti-EU candidates have been elected to office, ultimately threatening their participation in the euro currency.
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GGS Thoughts on the Market - 04/03/2018

Stock market volatility is back. Last year, it seemed like no headline could shake the extraordinary calm of the market, and the largest peak-to-trough move in the S&P 500 was just 2.8%. As we saw yesterday, this year even minor news can move the market over 3% in just a few hours. What changed?
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Market Selloff - 02/05/2018

As stated in our recent Q4 2017 quarterly newsletter and client education presentation, the calm, steadily rising equity market that had been in place since February 2016 was not normal. We did not know when a pullback would come, but we viewed its coming as inevitable. Today's declines in the Dow and S&P 500 were dramatic, but they were certainly not unprecedented in the context of financial markets history.
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Investment Outlook - 01/10/2018

The fourth quarter of 2017 capped a very strong year for US equity returns. Incredibly, the largest peak-to-trough move in the S&P 500 was just 2.8%, making 2017 one of the least volatile years ever. Since 1937, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has averaged more than one 5.0%+ pullback per year off unique 52-week highs, so the lack of any significant market decline since February 2016 is not normal.
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Investment Outlook - 01/17/2017

The fourth quarter of 2016 capped the end to a solid year for US equity returns. The quarter started off rocky with the S&P 500 Index falling each day from October 25 to November 4, the most consecutive losing sessions since 1980 as election uncertainty ran high. The market then rallied strongly into year-end on the back of strong economic data and optimism regarding the upcoming Republican administration.
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GGS Thoughts on US Election Results - 11/09/2016

Yesterday, citizens of the United States unexpectedly voted for Donald Trump as our next President, and also left Republican majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Markets around the world initially reacted very negatively last night with S&P 500 futures down as much as 5.7%. Losses have since moderated or even been erased following Trump's gracious victory speech and Clinton's concession, avoiding a contested election.
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GGS Thoughts on Brexit Vote - 06/24/2016

Yesterday, citizens of the United Kingdom unexpectedly voted to become the first country to exit the European Union. Markets around the world have reacted very negatively as significant uncertainties now abound in Europe. This is a major event for the citizens of the UK, this is a major event for the remaining 27 members of the EU, but by itself, we believe this is not a major event for the global economy and should not alter your long-term investment strategy.
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Current Market Environment - 01/22/2016

The recent market sell-off is primarily due to global growth concerns, in particular surrounding China. Recent metrics for the US, EU and Japan still point to continued slow growth, and global central banks are still supplying the world with ample liquidity and rock-bottom interest rates.
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